While cash, futures and the WOOD ETF prices all remain very weak, they are all greatly undervalued. With U.S. interest rates heading down and vacancies at nearly a 4-decade low, pent-up construction demand remains very high. With WSPF production continuing to drain, rapidly, out of Western Canada, we expect prices to be much higher ahead. Recall the primary reason for the drop in wood prices over the past year was a slowdown in the construction markets across North America. While a decline in new home permits has taken place, the decline has spurred a huge drop in 30-year mortgage rates which should cause development to regain strength. Long-term we do not expect lumber futures to break the $325 mark, however, we expect prices to rise above their current resistance level of $400 per Mbf potentially up to $550 over the next six to twelve months.
2019-07-31
