Widman’s Market Direction

The darling commodity of the current times continues to be lumber. A shining moment, that plenty say is long overdue. Softwood lumber valuation in comparison to countless products remains underappreciated at the end-user level. For the price of $5 you can buy a premium cup of coffee or a stick of building material that took 80 years to grow and copious levels of procurement, refinement, and logistics to get to a point that it can be used in building something that can easily last decades or longer. With pandemic-fueled housing needs pushed further than anyone ever envisioned a year ago, the industry finds itself squarely in the middle of not just a “supercycle” but a “megacycle”.  How far can this cycle go? The short answer is when supply can catch up to demand. With momentum and order files and logistics stretched to theoretical maximums, the earliest supply might begin to catch up, and generate a healthy correction of any fashion, is likely mid to distant Q3. And this does not factor in anything by way of Western wildfires or other inclement elements that have become far more intrusive to the lumber industry in recent years. For now, the direction remains higher highs and higher lows