Looking at the steady takeaway in dimensional lumber it would be hard to know the calendar has already moved past the first week of October. Seasonally, lumber demand and pricing are typically cooling by this time of the year. Last year’s rocket ride into record territory had already fully turned off its jets by now as buyers ran away to the sidelines with orders and home center business stalled out in advance of the infamous mid-October turn-down in retail sales. On the menu this year an extensive lack of participation by buyers through summer has led to a prolonged run on inventory fill-up requirements through the early part of the autumn. A summer with fewer lock-down conditions hit the home improvement business heavily as consumers turned their time and money towards activities away from home. Some of this business is back, but a persistent pandemic that continues to impact everything from construction, manufacturing to transportation is having a major squelching effect on how fast and far this correction can move. Further, buyers are by no means willing to overextend and speculate as many are still stinging heavily from last spring’s mega collapse. Global supply chain issues combined with moderate lumber supply could mean we will remain in a steady state of slowly inching towards the height of pricing this autumn. Looking further, towards the end of the year, a slower pace through the last quarter could portend a significant boom in early 2022, or even late 2021, as buyers with constrained inventories will need to line up wood ahead of the spring bull run.
2021-09-06
