Widman’s Market Direction:

Unseasonably depressed price conditions are weighing heavily on traders’ minds and while the prolonged and late return of wintry weather in the Northeast has muted much of the demand in the Northern regions of North America this spring, improving conditions are already at hand in the Southern regions and most certainly around the corner for the North. Yes, Eurowood is on the docks and some producers do have a good supply that needs to move. However, the biggest piece of this equation remains the buyer’s pent up demand versus their ability to holdout, potentially losing long term earnings, in favor of tighter cost controls. In the most probable scenario, buyers will be back and quite suddenly in good volume. When that happens, attention will immediately shift to the limits of transportation to support a suddenly busier and heavier volume of sales. Looking forward we see a strong price correction ahead. As logistics struggle under the sudden load, expect order file lengths to gap quickly from zero to 4-6 weeks.